Adaptive Scenario Planning for Madrasah Teacher Distribution in Greater Jakarta

Abstract

Ensuring equitable teacher distribution remains a critical challenge in improving the quality of madrasah education in Indonesia, particularly in the Greater Jakarta (Jabodetabek) region. Existing allocation policies primarily rely on teacher–student ratios and often overlook institutional capacity, regional diversity, and contextual conditions. This study examines the factors influencing the effectiveness of madrasah teacher distribution and develops adaptive planning scenarios to support more responsive policy interventions. A quantitative research design was employed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to analyze the effects of individual, organizational, and external environmental factors on teacher distribution management. The findings were subsequently integrated with the TAIDA (Tracking, Analysis, Imaging, Deciding, Acting) framework to formulate adaptive scenario-based planning models. The results reveal that organizational factors have the strongest influence on the effectiveness of teacher distribution, followed by individual and external environmental factors. The study demonstrates that distribution challenges are shaped by the interaction of governance structures, human resource characteristics, and contextual conditions rather than by teacher availability alone. Three adaptive scenarios were developed, ranging from administrative approaches to systemic adaptive models emphasizing organizational capacity, evidence-based planning, and regional responsiveness. The study contributes to educational management literature by integrating empirical modeling with strategic foresight to support equitable, flexible, and sustainable teacher distribution policies.